The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy is a non-technical book that deals with the Baysian Statistics.  

Thomas Bayes (1701–1761) was a Scottish clergyman who developed the technique.  Basically, Bayesian statistics is a set of mathematical formulas  where “one's inferences about parameters or hypotheses are updated as evidence accumulates.”  Simply put, Bayes allows for our subjective inferences as the starting point of inquiry.  Then, with accumulated evidence through  testing, those initial assumptions are refined.

This sounds a great deal like our common sense approach to life, and it is.  We all make hunches about probable outcomes of future events based on incomplete current information, and then change and alter our assumptions based on the results.  A somewhat technical explanation of how Bayes’ rule can be found here.

This book walks a fine line between a technical exposition of Bayesian statistics and a popular one.  It does this to the point where I think many readers will feel like they are missing something --- as if the surface is only being skimmed.  But the author had no choice; otherwise, the book would have gotten bogged down in technical details most readers can’t understand.

So, this book has a fair balance between the two… if not somewhat thin in math while being thick in history!